Fig 1.
Modelling of distribution of adherence patterns over individuals in the population.
Table 1.
Modelled intervention effects in individuals in whom adherence monitoring intervention is currently effective.
In each case, this represents a large effect at the individual level—the overall effect of the intervention is then determined by the percent of people in whom the intervention is effective.
Table 2.
Outcomes of adherence interventions according to the components the intervention has an effect on, the percent of people the intervention is effective in and whether viral load monitoring is employed, all in the context of an intervention with a durable effect.
Fig 2.
Overall programme costs according to components intervention has beneficial effect on ((a) adherence on ART only (b) adherence on ART + discontinuation of ART (c) discontinuation of ART only (d) adherence on ART + risk of resistance (e) adherence on ART + discontinuation of ART + risk of resistance).
Costs in US$m per 3 months (mean 2017–2036, discounted at 3% per annum from 2015). For scenario with 50% of people in whom the intervention has an effect, and a durable effect. For illustrative purposes, the adherence intervention has an arbitrarily selected cost of $10 per year per person on ART.
Table 3.
Sensitivity analyses (a) in context of no viral load monitoring (b) in context of viral load monitoring.
All in context of an intervention with a durable effect and the intervention being effective in 50% of people.