Fig 1.
Recent trends in real GDP, total energy use and total material use for China, Germany, OECD and the World.
Data are normalized to 100 in the year 1990.
Table 1.
Summary of resource conditions and resultant decoupling behavior.
Fig 2.
Calibrated model against (a) final energy demand and (b) material extractions from 1980–2010. Historical data (circles) are from H-D. Dark, medium and light solid lines represent low, middle and high values of Tj,ult. Dotted black lines are the projections of Tj inferred from H-D’s Stretch scenario.
Fig 3.
Calibration of resource use intensity and projection to 2100, for (a) final energy demand, and (b) material extractions. Circles represent H-D values for Tj (taken as Ij / GDP) plotted every three years, and solid coloured lines represent Tj modelled by Eq (5), calibrating rj and setting Tj,ult = 0.5Tj(2050). Around each solid line is a coloured band (most visible for (a) energy) representing the 95% confidence interval for rj. Dashed black lines represent modelled Tj when both rj and Tj,ult are calibrated.
Fig 4.
Reference Tj values for (a) energy and (b) material use, for Australia and other selected countries. Derived from GDP [25], total energy use [27] and total material use [26].
Fig 5.
Projections to 2100 of (a) GDP, (b) final energy demand, and (c) material extractions. Circles represent H-D values for Ij at 3-year intervals, and solid coloured lines represent Ij modelled using Eqs (3) and (5) on a yearly time step, with rj calibrated and Tj,ult set at 0.5Tj(2050). Around each solid line is a coloured band (most visible for (b) energy) representing the 95% confidence interval for rj. Dashed black lines represent modelled Tj when both rj and Tj,ult are calibrated.