Table 1.
Sample size and counts of siblings in Iraq, by governorate.
Fig 1.
Raw number of siblings death by year and cause, Iraq 1979–1993.
Source of data: Survey of 4,287 adults in 1,960 households in Iraq between May and July of 2011,782 sibling deaths by cause between 1980 and 1993. Data provided by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study, which collected household and sibling data from 2000 households across Iraq in 2011. Direct war-related injury deaths / total deaths = 45.3%. Among other deaths, 23.1% were attributed to cardiovascular disease, 22.2% to other injury, 10.7% to cancer, 37.0% to “other” and 7.0% to “don’t know.”
Fig 2.
Estimates of numbers of adult deaths per week in Iraq, 1979–1993, by cause as reported by siblings.
Source of mortality data: Survey of 4,287 adults in 1,960 households in Iraq between May and July of 2011, reporting on 782 sibling deaths between 1980 and 1993. Data provided by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study, which collected household and sibling data from 2000 households across Iraq in 2011; Event calendar collected from literature review. [24–27]
Fig 3.
Estimates of the probability of dying between age 15 and age 60, in Iraq 1979–1993.
Source of data: Survey of 4,287 adults in 1,960 households in Iraq between May and July of 2011, reporting on 782 sibling deaths by cause between 1980 and 1993. Data provided by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study, which collected household and sibling data from 2000 households across Iraq in 2011. The blue points illustrate the estimation of the male 45q15, and the light blue shading illustrates the male 95% uncertainty intervals; The red points illustrate the estimate of female 45q15, and the light red shading illustrates the female uncertainty intervals.
Table 2.
Counts of reported violent deaths in Iraq by responsible party and by cause, by war and non-conflict intervals.
Fig 4.
Number of New York Times news stories by year, 1980–1993, about Iraq and/or Iran.
Source of data: Our review of ProQuest Historical Newspapers database for NY Times articles about Iran or Iraq for the period 1980–1993. Of 31,357 articles produced, this analysis displays results for 4,769 non-duplicate events by type.
Fig 5.
Correlation between reported total Iraqi sibling deaths and new-reported war events, 1980–1993.
Source of data: Deaths come from a survey of 4,287 adults in 1,960 households in Iraq between May and July of 2011, reporting on 782 sibling deaths by cause between 1980 and 1993. Data provided by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study, which collected household and sibling data from 2000 households across Iraq in 2011. Total incidents come from our review of ProQuest Historical Newspapers database for New York Times articles about Iran or Iraq for the period 1980–1993, illustrating 4,769 non-duplicate events. Spearman correlation between war events and total sibling-estimated deaths is 0.60, P-value 0.02 (note: sensitivity analysis removing strong upper right hand data point, associated with Desert Storm, reduces certainty to p-value 0.07). Spearman correlation between war events and violent war deaths is 0.51, P-value 0.06. Spearman correlation between war events and deaths not associated with war is 0.41, P-value 0.14.