Fig 1.
Previous results from (5) showing ART coverage would decline if human resources for delivering ART remained constant.
Results are shown for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), non–sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA), and South Africa (SA). Year 0 is 2007.
Fig 2.
New 15-year-old HIV-uninfected individuals flow into the HIV-uninfected pools (1). HIV-uninfected individuals participate in sexual activity with HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals (2), giving rise to new HIV infections (3), which together with new HIV-infected 15-year-olds (4) add to the HIV-infected pool. HIV-infected people progress through different stages of HIV infection (5) until reaching CD4 cell count < 200μl (6) (purple color indicates people receiving ART).
Fig 3.
Trajectory of ART coverage in South Africa if human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) were to stay constant at the initial level.
Coverage shown for the following cases: assuming ART does not have prevention effects; assuming ART prevention effects are as observed in the HPTN 052 trial; ART prevention effects that are 1/2 or 1/10th of that observed in the HPTN 052 trial; and assuming ART non-retention rate is 30% or 50%. The lines for the following three cases are very close and hence all lines are not visible: with ART prevention effect, ART effect on HIV transmission probability 1/2 of that observed in HPTN 052, and ART effect on HIV transmission probability 1/2 of that observed in HPTN 052.
Fig 4.
“Surge capacity”: The number of HRHA needed after reaching universal (100%) ART coverage.
The Fig shows the drawdown in HRHA that is possible while maintaining universal ART coverage for two cases: if ART has no prevention effects and if ART has prevention effects.
Fig 5.
“Crowding out”: Number of new infections per year in South Africa if a fixed number of HRHA are diverted from ART to TasP.
Fig 6.
“Crowding out”: Number of HIV-related deaths per year in South Africa if a fixed number of HRHA are diverted from ART to TasP.
Fig 7.
ART coverage in the presence of high levels of outmigration of HRHA.
Fig 8.
New infections with and without ART resistance (in the absence of second-line ART).
Fig 9.
Deaths among HIV-infected people with and without ART resistance (in the absence of second-line ART).
Fig 10.
Example scenario for distribution of available HRHA across HIV stages in the model, reflecting an 80/20 distribution of patients on ART/TasP, i.e., 80% of treated patients on ART (CD4 cell count ≤350 μl) and 20% on TasP (CD4 cell count >350 μl).