Fig 1.
Facilities modelled in the farrow-to-finish pig herd.
Table 1.
Parameter values used in the metapopulation dynamics model reared in a 7-batch rearing system (from: [34,35]).
Fig 2.
M: Animals with MDAs; S1: Naïve animals; I1: Infected; R1: Recovered; S2: Susceptible to reinfection; I2: Re-infected; R2: Recovered after reinfection. Full transition rates (TR1 → TR32) are developed in Equations (Table 3).
Table 2.
Parameter values used in the swIAV infection dynamics model.
Table 3.
Equations determining the transition probabilities for each health state transition (illustrated in Fig 2) in each facility type.
Fig 3.
Boxplots representing the exploration of the variation of selected outputs (rows) according to the range of variation of each uncertain factor (columns).
The first column corresponds to the variation of the factor “between-batch transmission rate through the airborne route βair”, with 6 variation levels. The second corresponds to “the duration of the active immunity period σ1”, with 6 variation levels and the third column corresponds to “the susceptibility to reinfection φ”, with 3 variation levels. Different letters within panel (a, b, c, d and e) represent statistically different distributions (Kruskal-Wallis test).
Fig 4.
Survival analysis of swIAV within-herd persistence according to the level of susceptibility to infection for MDA-positive piglets.
100 simulations per scenario, χ2 Log rank test = 8.48, p-value = .004.
Fig 5.
Characteristics of the epidemics within batches according to the prevalence of MDA-positive piglets.
A. Duration of the epidemics within batch. B. Number of shedding piglets at the epidemic peak. C. Age of the piglets at infection-time.