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Fig 1.

Local recruitment and the timing of great tits and willow tits.

The local recruitment of the great tit (a and b) and the willow tit (c and d) in relation to synchrony with the caterpillar food peak (synchrony = day of 10 days old young–caterpillar peak day, i.e. chicks are 10 days old at the peak day; a and c), and local recruitment in relation to the timing of conspecifics (b and d). Frequency distribution for the observed synchrony values (a sliding average of five days) is shown by a red line in a and c. In d, date dependent emigration is controlled by an interaction between centred hatching date and distance to centre (1000m in this figure). Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals for local recruitment. The scale changes between rows. Parameter coefficients are presented in S7S10 Tables (Supplementary material).

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Fig 2.

Variation in local recruitment of willow tits and great tits.

Effects of a) body mass, b) density and c) distance to the centre of the study area from the natal site on local recruitment of willow tits (black solid line, dotted 95% confidence intervals) and great tits (grey solid line, dashed 95% confidence intervals).

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Fig 3.

Date dependent local recruitment in the willow tit.

Local recruitment in relation to the timing of conspecifics a) when considering only a standalone effect, and b) when considering interaction between centred hatching date (linear and quadratic) and distance to the centre of the study area (‘DC’; red line, DC = 3500; black line DTC = 500, dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals).

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