Fig 1.
Flow diagram of the Cardiff Type 1 Diabetes Model simulation process.
Table 1.
Baseline cohort characteristics and model inputs.
Fig 2.
Observed versus predicted validation endpoints (internal and external) and validation to published T1DM model output (costs and quality adjusted life years). Overall validation coefficient of determination for clinical endpoints, R2 = 0.863; internal R2 = 0.999; external R2 = 0.823; total costs R2 = 0.979; total QALYs R2 = 0.951.
Fig 3.
Weight and hypoglycaemia QALY plot.
Assessing the impact of changes in weight and rates of hypoglycaemia events on per-patient lifetime quality-adjusted life year (QALY) difference. The reference point relates to a 1% reduction in HbA1c (%) with no associated changes in weight or hypoglycaemia, which was associated with a predicted QALY gains of 0.99. This figure illustrates the relative impact of weight change ±3 kg and hypoglycaemia changes ±30% on the QALY gained, beyond those already seen with the reference point.
Fig 4.
Health economic value associated with various levels of glucose control.
Assessing the impact of unit (%) changes in HbA1c on per-patient cost savings, QALY gains and health economic value (defined as the amount of additional spend (£) justified to obtain the additional QALY gain predicted for each unit reduction in HbA1c at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20, 000.