Fig 1.
Commute network model of the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Geographical distribution of daytime working/studying population (A) and nighttime residing population (B) at each station. Each dot corresponds to a single station, with the color indicating its population size. The red colored stations near the center of (A) corresponds to the inner urban area of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which include the largest working station Shinjuku station, the second largest Tokyo station, and the third largest Shibuya station; the two red stations in the lower left are the Kawasaki and Yokohama stations. The longitude and latitude of each station were acquired from the Station Database [http://www.ekidata.jp]. (C) Population size distribution of the daytime working/studying population (red line) and the nighttime residing population (blue line) at each station. (D) Illustration of the commute network model. Each station has a working/studying area (daytime “work population”, red circles) and a residing area (nighttime “home population”, blue circles) connected by a commuting flow (“commuting population”). The non-commuting population at each station (“resident population”, green circles) is connected to the corresponding home population.
Fig 2.
R0-centralities at the major stations in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
The red lines indicate the commuting population who commutes to the Shinjuku station, which is the largest working/studying station in the Tokyo metropolitan area [36]. Similarly, the green lines indicate those for the second largest Tokyo station and the blue lines indicate those for the third largest Shibuya station. The average values of the R0-centralities of these commuting pathways are given in the top three rows of the table (R0 = 1.6 is assumed in the calculation).
Fig 3.
The R0-centrality for every commuting pathway and residential station in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
The R0-centralities of commuting populations: (A-1), those who directly commute to Shinjuku station; (A-2), those who do not commute to Shinjuku station but share a common resident station with them; (A-3), neither of them, are plotted against the population size of its working population. Similarly, the R0-centralities of non-commuting population: (B-1), those residing at the station area from which at least one commutes to Shinjuku station; (B-2), those residing at the station area from which no one commutes to Shinjuku station, are plotted against the population size of its resident population.
Fig 4.
The effect of countermeasures at each of the major stations in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
The basic reproductive ratio R0 (A) and the global final size of epidemic Ψ (B) are given as a function of the number of vaccinated/quarantined, respectively. The vaccination/quarantine is independently applied to each of the following major stations: Shinjuku (the largest working population, red lines), Tokyo (the second largest working population, green lines), and Shibuya (the third largest working population, blue lines). The results of random vaccination/quarantine are given in black dotted lines. Each column denotes the results for different β, which is defined as the infection rate from a single infectious host per unit time (relation between R0 and β is given in Methods section).