Fig 1.
A simplified representation of the PTSD model of the “Military/Post-Military” system.
All six stages have an outflow of death included in the model, but for the sake of simplicity here, they are not shown in the figure. Successful treatment rates are illustrated with dashed lines.
Fig 2.
Historical data vs. simulation results, and scenarios based on future engagements in wars.
(A) Diagnosis rate in military [new cases per year]. (B) Diagnosed cases in military. (C) Diagnosed cases in veterans.
Fig 3.
Cost projection and inertia analysis in the military and post-military systems.
(A) PTSD health costs in 2025, based on the dollar value in 2012. (B) A counterfactual analysis to measure the effects of a short-term war (between years zero and five) on PTSD prevalence in the military and among veterans.
Fig 4.
Simulation results for PTSD prevalence in 2025 for the military, the VA, and the total military-VA system under the three scenarios and interventions (Policy 1–7).
Note: See the instructions under Fig 5 on how to read the figure.
Fig 5.
Simulation results for PTSD healthcare costs in 2025 for the military, the VA, and the total military-VA system under the three scenarios and interventions (Policy 1–7).
For each sector (military, veterans, and total system), 24 combinations of the three scenarios and seven policy interventions along with the base run are presented.—Darker colors represent larger numbers.—One way to read the figures is to compare the effects of policies in a scenario (e.g., scenario 1). In Fig 4, e.g., in the military under scenario 1 (little involvement in future wars), PTSD prevalence was estimated to be 6.7% in the base run. If policies 1 or 2 were implemented, PTSD prevalence decreased slightly to 6.4%. However, with Policy 3, the prevalence decreased to 4.7%. In Figure 5, e.g., in military, under scenario 1, PTSD healthcare costs are estimated to be $0.12B in the base run. Going down in the same column, e.g., for policies 1 through 3, the PTSD healthcare costs in the military are estimated to be $0.17B, $0.09B, and $0.10B, respectively.—Another way to read the figures is to compare different scenarios over a policy.—Based on Fig 4, policy 7 results in lower prevalence and based on Figure 5, policy 6 results in the most cost saving.
Fig 6.
Healthcare costs in the military and the VA, and PTSD prevalence in the total system in 2025.