Fig 1.
Three-state Markov chain used to derive predictive value of basic ADL impairment.
hI(t) is the hazard rate for the time to basic ADL impairment. hD1(t) is the hazard rate for the time to death among basic ADL-intact patients. hD2(t) is the hazard rate for the time to death among basic ADL-impaired patients. The transitions between disease onset, development of basic ADL impairment, and death were modeled by quantifying the effect of baseline characteristics on basic ADL impairment and survival as well as the effect of developing basic ADL impairment on survival.
Table 1.
Baseline patient characteristics and corresponding comparisons by basic activities of daily living (basic ADL) impairment status.
Table 2.
Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) in the baseline Cox regression model and time-dependent Cox regression models for death.
Table 3.
Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) in the multistate model for predicting basic ADL impairment or death.
Fig 2.
Predicted conditional probability of death for patients with and without cognitive based basic ADL impairment.
(A)In the left panel, impairment was defined by PSMS ≥ 7. (B)In the right panel, impairment was defined by PSMS ≥ 2 points of increase relative to baseline. The predicted conditional probability of death over the first 6 years was calculated for each sex (men in blue and women in red) assuming either intact (the solid lines) or impaired (the dashed lines) basic ADL at time of observation.