Fig 1.
(a) HIV and (b) TB mortality and intervention coverage, and (c) TB mortality relative to start of ART scale-up.
Totals across 41 high TB/HIV burden countries. In Fig 1c, the mortality rate of each country (which are all weighted equally) is included as the difference between the country’s year-specific mortality (per 100,000 person-years) and its mean mortality over 1996 to 2011 (de-meaned). Blue line with ‘x’ marker: WHO estimate of TB deaths; Green line with triangle marker: Notification-based TB deaths with authors’ adjustment for notification completeness, including eight death notification categories (see Methods); Red line with ‘+’ marker: Notification-based TB deaths with authors’ adjustment for notification completeness, limited to smear-positive patients.
Table 1.
Panel regressions of effects of ART coverage on TB death rate, using as outcome variable: (top) WHO-estimated TB deaths as outcome variable; (bottom) authors’ notification-based TB deaths (applying indirect adjustment).
Fig 2.
WHO-estimated (left), notification-based (right) and model-predicted TB mortality following ART scale-up, in Namibia; Rwanda; Thailand; and Togo.
Dashed lines give 95% confidence interval. Model predictions use a 2-year time lag.
Fig 3.
WHO-estimated, notification-based and model-predicted TB mortality, following ART scale-up, in (a & b) 19 high TB/HIV countries with below median ART coverage; (c & d) 18 high TB/HIV countries with above median ART coverage.
Dashed lines give 95% confidence interval. Model predictions use a 2-year time lag. Split into below median versus above median ART coverage was based on ART coverage averaged over 1996–2012.
Table 2.
Sensitivity analyses.