Fig 1.
Methodology used to build the historical, forecasted and current distribution models for the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees.
Table 1.
Measured changes in the environmental variables between historical and current periods across the French Pyrenees.
Fig 2.
Occurrence probabilities of the Pyrenean desman predicted across the French Pyrenean stream network.
(a) historical, (b) forecasted and (c) current models.
Fig 3.
Relative contribution (%) of each environmental variable in the models for the two periods.
The historical period is depicted in grey while the current period is shown in white. Barplots indicate the mean importance (± standard error) across the six modelling methods. The environmental variables are sorted by decreasing importance for the current period.
Fig 4.
Response curves of the most relevant environmental variables influencing the distribution of the Pyrenean desman.
Response curves for the historical predictions are depicted in grey while those for the current prediction are shown in black. Solid lines indicate the mean response across the six statistical models while dotted lines represent the 95% confidence intervals. All non-categorical covariates were log-transformed and normalized.
Fig 5.
Percentage of change in predicted occurrence probabilities of the Pyrenean desman.
Percentage of change between (a) the historical and forecasted models (i.e. expected range change), (b) the current and forecasted models, and (c) the historical and current models (i.e. modelled range change).
Fig 6.
Distribution of occurrence probabilities changes.
Changes between the historical and forecasted models (i.e. expected range change) are shown in dark grey, the ones between the forecasted and current models in light grey, and the ones between historical and current models (i.e. modelled range change) in white.