Fig 1.
Modelling with a test dataset (3 years only) using the z value (z = 1.25) to form the Endemic Channel.
Outbreak signals were detected (black dots) where incidence crossed the Endemic Channel. Outbreak periods (red dots) were formed when 2 consecutive outbreak signals were present; outbreak periods ended when 2 absent consecutive outbreak signals were registered (incidence did not cross the Endemic Channel for 2 consecutive weeks).
Fig 2.
Modelling with a test dataset (3 years only) using two z values (Top: z = 1.25; Bottom: z = 2.0) to form the Endemic Channel. Outbreak periods (red dots) were equal to two consecutive outbreak signals (black dots) and ended in the absence of 2 consecutive outbreak signals.
Fig 3.
Test dataset: Alarm threshold of 0.12 was used against the outbreak probability.
Alarm periods (defined by 2 alarm signals (black dots) within the lag period) successfully detected outbreak periods (red dots) (defined by 2 outbreak signals). Correct and false alarms are highlighted. z = 1.25.
Fig 4.
Test dataset: Alarm threshold of 0.13 was used against the outbreak probability.
Alarm periods (defined by 2 alarm signals (black dots) within the lag period) successfully detected outbreak periods (red dots) (defined by 2 outbreak signals). Correct and false alarms are highlighted. z = 1.25.
Fig 5.
Test dataset: Alarm threshold = 0.12, z-value = 1.25.
Top: alarm periods defined by 2 alarms signals (black dots). Bottom: alarm periods defined by 4 alarm signals.
Fig 6.
Performance testing of the outbreak probability using 3 country datasets (evaluation period).
Sensitivity. z-value = 1.25, alternative alarm thresholds. Brazil: Alarm variable = Probable Cases; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Mexico: Alarm variable = mean temperature; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Malaysia: Alarm variable = Mean age; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases.
Fig 7.
Performance testing of the outbreak probability using 3 country datasets (evaluation period).
Positive Predictive Value. z-value = 1.25, alternative alarm thresholds. Brazil: Alarm variable = Probable Cases; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Mexico: Alarm variable = Mean Temperature; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Malaysia: Alarm variable = Mean Age; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases.
Fig 8.
Performance testing of the outbreak probability using 3 country datasets (evaluation period).
Sensitivity. Alarm threshold = 0.12, alternative z-values. Brazil: Alarm variable = Probable Cases; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Mexico: Alarm variable = Mean Temperature; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Malaysia: Alarm variable = Mean Age; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases.
Fig 9.
Performance testing of the outbreak probability using 3 country datasets (evaluation period).
Positive Predictive Value. Alarm threshold = 0.12, alternative z-values. Brazil: Alarm variable = Probable Cases; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Mexico: Alarm variable = Mean Temperature; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases; Malaysia: Alarm variable = Mean Age; Outbreak variable = Hospitalised Cases.
Table 1.
Summary results table stratified by country (data from evaluation period).
Most sensitive variables stratified by country where z = 1.25 and probability = 0.12.