Fig 1.
Agro-IBIS simulated maize yield (Mg ha-1) as driven with CRU data and output from all six GCMs for 1951–2005, and maize yield surveyed by USDA.
Simulated values are averaged over all grid cells in the model domain, and county level observations are averaged over a region corresponding to the model domain. Error bars indicate the range of yield across grid cells (for model simulation) and counties (for survey).
Fig 2.
Change in the May-October average air temperature (°C) for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.
Fig 3.
Change in monthly precipitation for May through October for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a percent difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.
Table 1.
Simulated DEFAULT (i.e., including moisture stress) maize yield (Mg ha-1) averaged across all 72 grid cells in domain from each HISTORIC run driven by the six GCMs and the percent change between HISTORIC and the MID21 and LATE21 runs under both RCP scenarios.
Fig 4.
Change in DEFAULT yield (%) vs. change in May-October average air temperature (°C) for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.
Each point represents the value of a model grid cell (a) or the domain average (b).
Table 2.
Simulated NONSTRESS maize yield (Mg ha-1) averaged across all 72 grid cells in domain from each HISTORIC run driven by the six GCMs and the percent change between HISTORIC and the MID21 and LATE21 runs under both RCP scenarios.
Table 3.
Simulated average maize growing period length averaged across all 72 grid cells in domain from each HISTORIC NONSTRESS run driven by the six GCMs and the change in number of days between HISTORIC and the MID21 and LATE21 NONSTRESS runs under both RCP scenarios.
Fig 5.
Change in NONSTRESS yield (%) vs. change in maize growing period length (days) for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.
Each point represents the value of a model grid cell.
Fig 6.
Change in NONSTRESS yield (%) vs. change in May-October average air temperature (°C) for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.
Each point represents the value of a model grid cell (a) or the domain average (b).
Table 4.
Simulated average maize Yield Loss Index (YLI) averaged across all 72 grid cells in domain from each HISTORIC run driven by the six GCMs and the simulated experimental YLI under both RCP scenarios for the MID21 and LATE21 time periods.
Fig 7.
Change in Yield Loss Index vs. change in summer (JJA) precipitation (%) for each GCM and RCP scenario where the value shown is a difference between MID21 or LATE21 and HISTORIC.