Table 1.
Summary of mosquito population parameters and respective values.
Table 2.
Summary of mosquito population parameters depending on precipitation and respective representative values.
Table 3.
Summary of mosquito population controlling parameters and respective representative values.
Table 4.
Summary of dengue transmission and human population parameters, and respective representative values.
Fig 1.
Daily maximum and minimum temperatures (a) and precipitation (b), from October 1st, 1995 to September 30th, 2012 in the City of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil.
Fig 2.
Monthly recorded cases of dengue in the City of Campinas from October 1st, 1995 to September 30th, 2012 (a), and the controlling of mosquitoes by spraying insecticide and/or removing of the breeding sites since 2010 (b,c).
Table 5.
Estimated entomological parameters of female mosquito and aquatic phase.
Fig 3.
Time varying carrying capacity C (a) and the fraction of hatching eggs q (b) during the period of time (October) 1995–2012 (September).
Fig 4.
Transition rates σl (a) and σp (b) during the period of time (October) 1995–2012 (September).
Fig 5.
Overall mortality rates of aquatic forms (a) and
(b) during the period of time (October) 1995–2012 (September).
Fig 6.
Mortality rate of adult mosquitoes μm (a) and the oviposition rate ϕm (b) during the period of time (October) 1995–2012 (September).
Table 6.
Model FD: Summary of fitted parameters and epidemiological values for four periods, with rf = r(t2) and Id = i(t1)N(t1).
Fig 7.
Estimation of Model FD in Period 1 (October/1995—September/2000).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 8.
Estimation of Model FD in Period 2 (October/2000—September/2004).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 9.
Estimation of Model FD in Period 3 (October/2004—September/2008).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 10.
Estimation of Model FD in Period 4 (October/2008—September/2012).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Table 7.
Model PMAL: Summary of fitted parameters and epidemiological values for four periods, with rf = r(t2) and Id = i(t1)N(t1).
Fig 11.
Estimation of Model PMAL in Period 1 (October/1995—September/2000).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 12.
Estimation of Model PMAL in Period 2 (October/2000—September/2004).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 13.
Estimation of Model PMAL in Period 3 (October/2004—September/2008).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 14.
Estimation of Model PMAL in Period 4 (October/2008—September/2012).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Table 8.
Model TMAL: Summary of fitted parameters and epidemiological values for four periods, with rf = r(t2) and Id = i(t1)N(t1).
Fig 15.
Estimation of Model TMAL in Period 1 (October/1995—September/2000).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 16.
Estimation of Model TMAL in Period 2 (October/2000—September/2004).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 17.
Estimation of Model TMAL in Period 3 (October/2004—September/2008).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 18.
Estimation of Model TMAL in Period 4 (October/2008—September/2012).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Table 9.
Model SIR: Summary of fitted parameters and epidemiological values for four periods, with rf = r(t2) and Id = i(t1)N(t1).
Fig 19.
Estimation of Model SIR in Period 1 (October/1995—September/2000).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 20.
Estimation of Model SIR in Period 2 (October/2000—September/2004).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 21.
Estimation of Model SIR in Period 3 (October/2004– September/2008).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 22.
Estimation of Model SIR in Period 4 (October/2008—September/2012).
(a) observed incidence (O) and adjusted i (E), (b) m3/m, (c) (h) and
(m), and (d)
.
Fig 23.
Effects of temperature and precipitation considering the fitted parameters of Model FD in Period 1 (October/1995—September/2000).
(a) Fig 7(a) restricted in the interval October/1995—September/1999 (four years), (b) Period 2 (October/2000—September/2004), (c) Period 3 (October/2004—September/2008), and (d) Period 4 (October/2008—September/2012).
Fig 24.
Effects of initial introduction of infectious individuals Id considering the fitted parameters of Model FD in Period 1.
(a) Id = 1, (b) Id = 25, (c) Id = 150, and (d) Id = 1000. (Fig 7(a) was obtained using Id = 75).
Fig 25.
Effects of the time of introduction of infectious individuals t1 considering the fitted parameters of Model FD in Period 1.
The time of introduction t1 is year 1995: (a) July 1st, (b) September 1st, (c) December 1st, and (d) December 31st. (Fig 7(a) was obtained using October 1st 1995 as t1).