Fig 1.
Summary of bluetongue virus occurrences (yellow points) available for model calibration worldwide.
Dotted black shading represents the early belt of BTV occurrence.
Fig 2.
Current potential distribution map for bluetongue virus based on present-day climatic conditions.
Blue shaded areas are modeled suitable conditions, and white areas are unsuitable conditions.
Fig 3.
Relationship of additional independent BTV records to areas predicted as suitable for bluetongue virus occurrences.
Yellow points are independent BTV occurrence data from the Old World and North America. Blue areas are represented as suitable and white as unsuitable.
Fig 4.
Predicted potential distribution maps for bluetongue virus under future climatic conditions.
Models were calibrated across present-day conditions, and transferred to the future climate conditions. Each model is the median of all climate models across each representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Orange areas are modeled suitable conditions; white areas are unsuitable conditions for BTV occurrences.
Fig 5.
Summary of the modeled global distribution of bluetongue virus under both current and future climatic conditions to show the stability of predictions at present and into the future, and to illustrate differences among representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
Dark blue represents model stability under both current and future conditions, light blue represents low agreement between current and future conditions, dark purple represents agreement among all climate models in anticipating potential distributional areas in the future, and light purple indicates low agreement between diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future.