Fig 1.
Distribution of the little (a) and the great bustard (b) in the study area.
Table 1.
Variables, and their associated predictor sets, used in the modelling procedure.
Fig 2.
Favourability for the little bustard at present and in 2080.
a) Present favourability according to the space-included model; b) future favourability in 2080 according to the space-included model and the GCM HADCM3; c) present favourability according to the space-excluded model; d) future favourability in 2080 according to the space-excluded model and the GCM HADCM3. Favourability ranges from zero (white cells) to one (black cells). Classification maps with high, medium and low favourability are represented in Figure A in S1 Appendix.
Fig 3.
Favourability for the great bustard at present and in 2080.
a) Present favourability according to the space-included model; b) future favourability in 2080 according to the space-included model and the GCM HADCM3; c) present favourability according to the space-excluded model; d) future favourability in 2080 according to the space-excluded model and the GCM HADCM3. Favourability ranges from zero (white cells) to one (black cells). Classification maps with high, medium and low favourability are represented in Figure B in S1 Appendix.
Fig 4.
Variation partitioning of predictor sets explaining favourability for little bustard (a) and great bustard (b). Values shown in the bars are the percentages of variation of the models explained exclusively by climate, the geographic predictor, land use, topography, and by the combined effect of these predictor sets. Note that each model can be formed by different numbers of predictor sets (see Tables 1 and 3).
Table 2.
Variables selected in the predictor-set models.
Table 3.
Combined models for Little (LB) and Great Bustard (GB) current favourability and their evaluation metrics.