Fig 1.
Energy use model: (A) Energy growth predictions compared with historical energy use data. (B) Historical energy use change in ZJ person-1 (Individual energy use) and ZJ GDP-1 (Economy-wide energy use). (C) Historical economic growth rates.
Fig 2.
Historical data and forecasts (to the right of the dotted lines) are shown for relative change in energy use in ZJ GDP-1 (A), and ZJ person-1 (B) for a range of scenarios.
Fig 3.
Fossil fuel depletion model: (A) Modelling of the depletion of Safely Extractable Reserves (SER) to meet 1.5 (yellow: 480GtC), 2(mid yellow: 570GtC) and 3°C (orange: 609GtC) global warming targets proposed in [44–46], 1P reserves (red) and URRs (blue) at the historical energy savings rate of 0.61% yr-1 and (B) the 1.41% yr-1 Blue map target using Eq 1. Fuel depletion trajectories are shown at economic growth rates of 2.5%, 3.5% and 5.9% based on the +/- 1 SD historical rate range (Fig 1C). ‘Extr’ extrapolates the 1950–2010 energy use rate. The pin markers indicate the corresponding depletion dates based on IEA methodology. (C) Models the effect of increasing renewable energy contribution from the current 18.2% level up to 80% in URRs (red), IP reserves (blue).