Fig 1.
Relationship between both Log (U5MR) and Log (MMR) and Log (GDP per capita).
The well-known Preston relationship is clearly visible, with correlation coefficients of between -.8 and -.9. A line of best fit curve is added showing a similar slope for both years, as well as a shift rightward and downward in 2010 compared to 1990. There are 170, 179, 162, 173 countries shown respectively (A-D).
Table 1.
Summary statistics for sample of countries showing change in U5MR and change in factors responsible for U5MR.
Observations are available raw data. Means listed include imputed values.
Fig 2.
Value examined is the relationship of changes in societal coverage level compared to total accounted changes, or (βΔX/(βΔX + XΔβ). The interaction term ΔXΔβ was small, usually negative, and thus ignored (Table A in S1 Appendix).
Fig 3.
Contribution of changes in the levels of determinates of health (health interventions, social and environmental determinants) to reductions in U5MR, 1990–2010 (A).
Out of 768 models run, the contribution of factor level changes averaged 89%. Of these, half included a variable for fertility (Log of TFR lagged 5 years), and half did not out of concern for endogeneity. The decomposition to the right shows how these improvements averaged a breakdown by indicator. Details of this latter composition are shown in Table A in S1 Appendix. For uncertainty ranges around each estimate see Figure B in S1 Appendix.
Fig 4.
Contribution of changes in the levels of determinates of health (health interventions, social and environmental determinants) to reductions in MMR, 1990–2010.
Out of 432 models run, the contribution of factor level changes averaged 133%, which is rescaled to 100% here. The decomposition to the right shows how these improvements averaged a breakdown by indicator. For uncertainty ranges around each estimate in the see Figure B in S1 Appendix.
Table 2.
Amount of improvements accounted for by just economic growth and governance.
The absolute change in each factor in the table was the dependent variable, and the independent variables were annual per capita GDP growth from 1990–2010, improvement in governance 1996–2010, starting GDP per capita in 1990, and starting government effectiveness in 1996. When data were not available for the given year, the most recent available data was substituted. The percent explained is the R2 term from unweighted OLS regression.