Fig 1.
Study area showing the 11 regions, the location of the producers (grey dot) participating in the survey (1999–2011) and the weather stations (black triangle).
BSL: Bas-Saint-Laurent; CTS: Côte-du-Sud; BEA: Beauce; QUE: Québec; MAU: Mauricie; LAN: Lanaudière; EST: Estrie; LAU: Laurentides, Outaouais, Abitibi-Témiscamingue; CDQ: Centre-du-Québec; STY: Saint-Hyacinthe; VAL: Valleyfield.
Table 1.
The number of producers surveyed within each region as well as the statistics on the starts, ends and lengths (Julian days) of the period of production.
Fig 2.
Variation in the start (closed circles) and end (open circles) of season (Julian days, left axis).
Regions are ranked by increasing mean annual temperature (closed triangles, right axis).
Fig 3.
Relationship between average annual spring temperature and average Julian day of the beginning of the season of syrup maple production for the 11 regions studied.
The equation is shown on the figure along with the r2.
Table 2.
Projections (average ± standard deviation) for the start, end (Julian days; jd), and length (days; d) of production season and the total annual production for the reference period 1971–2000, and two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100.
Fig 4.
Relationship between the Julian day of the start of the season production (left panel, A) as projected with the logistic model (x axis) and the TJ-A model (y axis) for the 2081–2100 period for each of the 77 simulation for the 11 regions (n = 847).
The right panel (B) shows the distribution of the displacement (delta Julian day) of the 2081–2100 vs the 1971–2000 period.
Fig 5.
Probability density for the start (A), end (B) and length (C) of production season for the Saint-Jean Valleyfield region for the 1971–2000, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 periods, respectively.
Each thin line represents the distribution of the different years within each of the 77 projections based on the 77 global climate scenarios.
Table 3.
Year to year variability (mean standard deviation ± 1 SD) for the start and end, and duration of the season for the three study periods.