Table 1.
Frequency of dengue viremia in children and demographic features of each of 10 2-block study patches in highly endemic neighborhoods of Armenia, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga, Colombia.
Additional information on A.aegypti habitats and visitors to homes provided in Table A in S1 File.
Fig 1.
Schematic of dengue transmission system in an urban patch.
Arrows represent causally increasing or self-enhancing effects, dots represent causally decreasing effects. For example, transmission between residents and mosquitoes on its own is self-enhancing because it amplifies the exposure of non-infected hosts to dengue. The transmission system is comprised of the interactions between the white boxes; yellow boxes are socio-ecological drivers of interest, represented as parameters in the ABM.
Table 2.
Default value of a parameter refers to median value in all model analyses, with random individual-level variation as indicated in Table. Exceptions are mig, birth rate and vector production, which were jointly varied in initial analyses (see methods section for values)
Fig 2.
Daily dynamics of transmission 11–20 years post invasion for five randomly selected trials for each combination of external social vector exposure (pesv) (increasing from left to right) and migration (mig) (increasing from top to bottom.
Birth rate was held at a constant probability of 0.15 births/household/year and vector production was input using the field patch with the highest average rate of A. aegypti production. Dotted lines track the fraction of the population susceptible to dengue (S) and solid lines track the number of infectious people (I).
Fig 3.
Simulated outbreak size distributions for each combination of pesv and mig as shown in Fig 1.
Each point represents an independent viral introduction into the 2-block patch in years 11–20, tabulated across 250 simulations for each parameter combination. Power law fits are shown in red. Lower D values indicate a better fit of the power law to the data. Alpha refers to the power law exponent (a). Vector recruitment is parameterized from the patch with the highest frequency of containers >100 A. aegypti pupae.
Fig 4.
Number of PCR22 events 11–20 years post invasion (y-axis), averaged across 250 trials (s.e.) for each combination of pesv and mig as shown in Figs 1 and 2.
Birth rate averages 0.05–0.1 annual births/house in the low group and 0.2–0.25 annual births/house in the high group.