Fig 1.
Study site showing major basins and land ownership patterns.
Fig 2.
Rehfeldt (2006; 2012) projections for biomes (Brown, 1998) for three time periods in the study area within New Mexico.
Projections were made for habitats under an A2 emission scenario.
Fig 3.
Variable importance for 12 predictors of suitable habitat for three bird species.
Importance indicates contribution of variable to model fit.
Fig 4.
Change in suitable habitat for three bird species under three climate scenarios.
A) Lucy’s Warbler; B) Southwestern willow flycatcher; C) Western yellow-billed cuckoo.
Fig 5.
Availability of suitable habitat for three bird species under three climate scenarios.
A) Lucy’s Warbler; B) Southwestern willow flycatcher; C) Western yellow-billed cuckoo. Habitat predictions are shown for the most important (>50% area) land management or ownership categories. For all three species, the greatest proportion of suitable habitat is found on privately owned land. BLM = Bureau of Land Management, BOR = U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, DOD = U.S. Department of Defense, FS = U.S. Forest Service, FWS = U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, NPS = National Park Service.
Fig 6.
Current and mid-century projections of suitable habitat for three bird species, Lucy’s warbler, Southwestern willow flycatcher, and Yellow-billed cuckoo.
Colors indicate predicted habitat for one (yellow), two (orange), or all three (red) species in current and future time periods. Each species’ predicted suitable habitat is based on a 2/3 consensus model (see text). Inset: Expanded area shows the largest suitable patch area for all three species under future climate conditions is found within and adjacent to Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge. BLM = Bureau of Land Management, FS = U.S. Forest Service, FWS = U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.