Fig 1.
Flow diagram and schematic of the Agent Based Monte Carlo simulation.
Table 1.
See text for more details.
Fig 2.
Data describing media fatigue is shown (blue) [16]. An exponential curve is fit to the data to determine a media fatigue waning rate (red). The resulting equation is f(t) = 0.09911 exp − 0.0469t. Right panel: Media reports. Second wave of an epidemic produced from the fitted value for ρ1 from [16] and parameter values in [41]. The x-axis is time in days.
Fig 3.
Media data collected by GPHIN from all media worldwide. The time scale is weeks with 0 corresponding to March 1, 2009. The solid line is all media data collected, the dotted line is French and English media data and the dashed line is English language media data.
Table 2.
Each row has results for the ODE models and the ABMC for 100 simulations (mean and standard error). (a) Results for a standard SEIR model; (b) SS1EIRM, including S1 and media reports; (c) SS1VEIRM, including vaccination of S and S1; (d) SS1S2VEIRM, extending to include S2 and vaccination; (e) SS1S2VEIRMw, extending to include media waning.
Fig 4.
Partial rank correlation coefficients are shown for (a) Peak magnitude; (b) Peak time (c) End time; (d) Total number of infectious individuals. PRCC coefficients have negative or positive correlations to the public health outcomes of interest. The total population N is assumed to be constant.
Fig 5.
Infection curves with GPHIN data.
In the left panel of this figure the pandemics do not have a vaccine available, in the right panel there is a vaccine available for the second wave of the pandemic. First row: influenza pandemic curve for the duration for which GPHIN has media data collected. Second row: media is kept constant at the level of the last weeks data collection after the end of data collection. Third row: media decays linearly after final data point and is then held at 0. Fourth row: no media reports after the final data reading. Fifth row: Media is kept constant until the declared pandemic end, week 47, then cut off.
Fig 6.
Lab confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 in 2009 in Canada [44]. There are two waves of the pandemic.