Fig 1.
Distribution of occurrence pixels (5 arc minutes, red dots).
The brown colors indicate producer groups by area of arabica coffee harvested in each country [27].
Table 1.
Bioclimatic variables used and mean values at occurrence pixels under current and 2050s conditions; the values for 2050s were calculated as mean impact across 19 GCMs.
Fig 2.
Dendrogram of agglomerative clustering.
On the vertical axis is Euclidean distance. The final definition of clusters is indicated by the color codes: Green-“Hot-Wet”, Violet-“Constant”, Red-“Hot-Dry”, Yellow-“Cool-Variable”, Turquoise–“Cool-Dry”.
Fig 3.
Confidence intervals of group compared with the grand mean for descriptor variables.
Group labels are the cluster numbers (C 1–5) in the dendrogram (Fig 2). The dashed line is the grand mean, the value for which is given at the bottom.
Fig 4.
Distribution of AEZs in regions important for arabica coffee; A Brazil; B East Africa; C Central America; D Indonesia; E Colombia; F India; Colored grid cells represent the agro-ecological zone; dots indicate sites recommended for trial sites, hatching alternative locations with less model agreement.
Fig 5.
Change of agro-ecological zone in important arabica coffee production regions until the 2050s; A Brazil; B East Africa; C Central America; D Indonesia; E Colombia; F India
Table 2.
Distribution of grid cells in the agro-ecological zones under current and 2050s conditions.
Fig 6.
Transition plot of the fate of suitable pixels in coffee AEZs from current conditions to 2050s; size of boxes and width of transition arrows is representative of the number of pixels; the size of the box of the “unsuitable” category includes only pixels that become suitable by 2050 or were suitable with current climate.
Table 3.
List of recommended trial sites for Nicaragua.