Table 1.
Species model reliability based on three criteria.
Fig 1.
Projected climate-based range change between 1990–2010 and 2080–2100 for Hawai`i `Ākepa (left) and Maui Parrotbill (right).
The gridded overlay represents the distribution of primary vegetation types associated with the species (S6 File). The pink overlay shows the spatial configuration of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Fig 2.
Current (left) and future (right) forest bird number of species based on modeled range and available primary habitat of high model reliability species.
The pink overlay shows the spatial configuration of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Fig 3.
Current (left) and future (right) forest bird number of species based on modeled range and available primary habitat of all extant species.
The pink overlay shows the spatial configuration of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Table 2.
Projected changes between 1990–2010 and 2080–2100 in ranges of high model reliability species, limited to current available primary habitat.
All range estimates are in km2. Similar estimates for reduced model reliability species are included in S8 File.
Fig 4.
Potential priority areas for forest bird habitat conservation.
Map is based on the number of high model reliability species projected to maintain their range between now and end of century. Current protected areas are delineated in green (National parks, State parks, Natural area reserves, wildlife refuges, sea bird sanctuaries, Nature Conservancy lands and other major private conservation areas). The pink overlay shows the spatial configuration of the main Hawaiian Islands. A similar figure including all extant species is included in S7 File.
Fig 5.
Potential priority areas for forest bird habitat restoration.
Map is based on the identification of currently converted forest bird habitat within locations remaining climatically suitable for high model reliability species between now and end of century. The pink overlay shows the spatial configuration of the main Hawaiian Islands. A similar figure including all extant species is included in S7 File.
Fig 6.
Conceptual timeline for implementing novel forest bird conservation options.
Diagram shows the latest possible start (dashed red line) of long-term novel options that decouple climate shifts from species decline. Missing this threshold implies the need of buying time options necessary for species persistence.