Table 1.
Eco-geographic factors used for modeling the distribution of Montivipera raddei species complex in Iran, Turkey and Armenia.
Variables in bold type were used in climate change scenarios and were prepared with 2.5 arc-second resolution.
Fig 1.
Predicted suitable and unsuitable habitats for Montivipera raddei species complex in Iran, Turkey and Armenia.
The model includes all eco-geographic variables and was reclassified into 10 equal probability classes in which red colour shows areas with the highest probability of occurrence. Newly confirmed localities of the species are indicated with blue dots.
Table 2.
Discrimination capacity and classification accuracy criteria for cross-validated Maxent models of Montivipera raddei species complex in Iran, Turkey and Armenia used for evaluating the performance of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs).
Mean omission error refers to maximum training sensitivity plus specificity logistic threshold.
Fig 2.
Predicted distribution models of Montivipera raddei species complex in Iran, Turkey and Armenia.
Models are based on the CCSM (a) and MIROC (b) for the past, present condition (c), and 2.6 (d) and 8.5 (e) scenarios of CCSM that describe mitigation and high emission scenarios of future anthropogenic climate change, respectively. Red colour shows areas with higher probability of occurrence. MESS encompasses non-analogous climate conditions with reference to the training background range of the baseline model.
Table 3.
Percentage cover of climate-only models within the probability classes for the distribution of Montivipera raddei species complex in Iran, Turkey and Armenia.
Fig 3.
Altitudinal distribution of Montivipera raddei species complex habitats in the past, present and future (A). Annual mean temperature of accessible habitats for Montivipera raddei species complex within different climate niche models (B). Annual mean temperature of Montivipera raddei species complex habitats in the past, present and future (C).
Average values were calculated for cells occurring within probability classes of different climate niche models.