Table 1.
Hydrologic Classification of Montane Wetland Types.
Fig 1.
Regions with observed wetland data used to calibrate montane wetland models.
Fig 2.
Locations of focal field sites in Seven Lakes Basin in Olympic National Park (left) and Mazama Ridge/High Lakes in Mount Rainier National Park (right) with multiple years of hydrologic data.
Points indicate the pond type: red is ephemeral, orange is intermediate, green is perennial, and blue is permanent.
Table 2.
Summary of observed wetland data used in the study.
Fig 3.
Schematic diagram of the method of projecting and hindcasting wetland hydrology using the VIC hydrologic model calibrated with empirical data and driven by historical or simulated future climate inputs.
Fig 4.
Boxplot of goodness of fit (R2) between observed and simulated data for each wetland type.
Fig 5.
Four representative wetlands in Mt. Rainier National Park, WA (a-d) and in Olympic National Park, WA (e-h) for ephemeral hydroperiod (a,e), intermediate hydroperiod(b,f), perennial (c,g) and permanent wetland (d,h).
Solid circles show observed data that are used for developing regression model and calculating R2 values and open circles are remaining observed data. Blue lines are simulated wetland levels.
Fig 6.
Observed wetland water levels compared with simulation using the regression models for a) Deschutes National Forest, OR, b) Willamette National Forest, OR, and c) Trinity Alps Wilderness, CA.
Dark blue lines are produced by the regression equation deriving from the best fit from all available years. Blue bands show the range of uncertainty associated with alternate regression parameters deriving from other years of data.
Fig 7.
Observed wetland water level for year 1992 (a-c) and for year 2012 (d-f) for ponds at Mount Rainier National Park compared with the simulated wetland water levels using the regression model that were developed based on 1992 observation.
Solid circles show observed data that are used for developing regression model and/or for calculating R2 values and open circles are the other observed data. RMSE is the root mean squared error, which allows comparison of model fit for the two datasets.
Fig 8.
Projected wetland response to climate change for sites in Mt. Rainier National Park, WA (a-d) and in Olympic National Park, WA (e-h) for ephemeral hydroperiod (a,e), intermediate hydroperiod (b,f), perennial (c,g) and permanent wetlands (d,h).
Blue solid lines are wetland hydrographs for representative years 1998 (a-d) and 1985 (e-h) and pink and read dashed lines show wetland hydrographs of year 1998 (a-d) and 1985 (e-h) with climate change perturbation for the 2040s and 2080s, respectively.
Fig 9.
Scatterplots showing the slope of wetland drying versus the average of annual minimum a) for historical runs and b) for the 2080s.
Reds are ephemeral hydroperiod wetlands, oranges are intermediate hydroperiod wetland, greens are perennial wetlands and blues are permanent wetlands.
Fig 10.
Map of the difference between historical probability of drying and that of the 2080s for intermediate wetlands in the mountains of Western Washington state.
Projections for the 2080s are the average value for all ten GCM A1B scenarios. Colored grid cells are above 250m elevation, the region in which our projections are most relevant. Topographic contour intervals are 750m.