Fig 1.
Schematic of HYDE integration into a coupled climate-land surface model.
The method employed to convert the five HYDE categories into land categories used by ESMs is not straight-forward and a mismatch between the land surface model and the HYDE 3.1 land cover classification can appear.
Fig 2.
Schematic of FOREST-SAGE integration into a coupled climate-land surface model.
The schematic emphasizes how FOREST-SAGE translates global anthropogenic land-use scenarios to ESMs grid-scale land cover on-line in a fully coupled way.
Fig 3.
Overview of the local drivers’ spatial distribution.
The input data used to initialize the model are summarized in Table 1.
Fig 4.
Deforestation risk associated to the experiment 1 (Table 3).
The panel a is referred to the forest cover risk (rfrag), while the panel b to the risk related both to the protected area (rpark) and to the logging concessions (rlog). In the panel c is shown the risk associated to the roads (rroad) while the panel d is connected to the population centres risk (rpop). Finally the panel e is related to the river risk (rriver) and lastly in the panel f is shown the global deforestation risk (rtot).
Table 1.
Details of the input data used to initialize the model.
Table 2.
Summary of the 729 ensemble experiments set by the choice of different valued parameters.
The three experiments pointed out have been chosen using as metric the best spatial correlation (experiment 1), the minimum BIAS (experiment 2) and the minimum RMSE (experiment 3).
Fig 5.
FOREST-SAGE model sensitivity.
The 240 sensitivity experiments are performed changing each time a single valued parameter setting the experiment 1 as reference and comparing the results (averaged at 50 km) against the MODIS trend 2001-2010. To evaluate the model sensitivity a perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) have been conducted and, also, in order to increase the ensemble spread of FOREST-SAGE and to take into consideration the spatial uncertainties, a stochastic perturbation to model physics has been added. On the y-axis the spatial correlation is shown, while on the x-axis the parameter values are given. The panels a−c−d−f−g−l are referred to the weights of fragmentation, logging, road, park, river, population respectively. The panel b is referred to the p−q beta distribution parameters, while the panel i is referred to the reforestation rate. Moreover the panels e−h−m are referred to the e-folding spatial scale of roads, rivers, population while the panel n is referred to the e folding increase with population density.
Table 3.
Summary of the constant values used in the experiment 1 of Table 2. The experiment 1 outputs have been attached in Supporting Information (S2 File).
Fig 6.
MODIS (panel a) and FOREST-SAGE (panels b−d−f) trend years 2001–2010.
The displayed panels b−d−f are referred to the FOREST-SAGE experiments 1–3 (Table 2) respectively, while the panels (c−e−g) represent the difference between FOREST-SAGE and MODIS. Negative values indicate a deforestation trend, while positive values an increase in forest cover.
Fig 7.
MODIS (panel a) and HYDE (panels b−c−d−e) trend for years 2001–2010.
The displayed panels b−c−d−e are referred to the AIM (RCP6.0), IMAGE (RCP2.6), MESSAGE (RCP8.5) and GCAM (RCP4.5) models respectively. Due to the weak magnitude signal of AIM and MESSAGE, panels b−d are shown with differing color scales.