Fig 1.
Population dynamics of replication.
Fig 2.
Effects of base rate, replication, power, false-positives, and communication on the probability that an hypothesis with a given tally is true.
The two clusters illustrate difference scenarios. The blue trends, each labeled with its tally value, show precision as it varies by the parameter on each horizontal axis. The numbers indicate the tally of a curve. Dashed curves are tallies of an even number. The vertical hairlines show the parameter values held constant across panels within the same cluster.
Fig 3.
Replication and communication as epistemological chromatography.
Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray.
Fig 4.
In all three plots, tallies marked for targeted replication are shown by the shaded region. Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray. Baseline parameters set to b = 0.001, α = 0.05, r = 0.1, rT = 0.5, cN− = 0, cR− = cR+ = 1. Dashed curves display steady-state without targeted replication, rT = 0. (a) High power setting, 1 − β = 0.8. (b) Low power setting, 1 − β = 0.6. (c) Low power, 1 − β = 0.6, and including tally s = 0 in the target.
Fig 5.
Differential power and replication dynamics.
Precision is indicated in blue, sensitivity in orange, and specificity in gray. (a) Low power initial studies (1 − β = 0.6, α = 0.2) but high power replications (1 − βR = 0.8, αR = 0.05). (b) High power initial studies (1 − β = 0.8, α = 0.05) but low power replications (1 − βR = 0.5, αR = 0.05). (c) and (d) as in (a) and (b), respectively, but only 10% of negative replications are communicated.