Fig 1.
Phylogenetic tree of T. absoluta samples from Kenya and others obtained from GenBank.
Fig 2.
Global known geo-reference location points of T. absoluta.
Point locations in South America correspond to its native distribution, and were obtained from the published literature. Point locations in Africa correspond to survey conducted by the authors of the article.
Table 1.
Parameter values used to build a potential distribution for T. absoluta using CLIMEX modeling platform.
Fig 3.
CLIMEX climatic suitability indices for T. absoluta in South America considered as the native region of the pest.
Predictions are based on the eco-climatic index (EI), a measure of climatic suitability scaled from 1–100, for locations within CLIMEX’s platform station database. EI = (0–5) location is not suitable; EI = (5–20) moderate level of suitability; EI = (20–50) high risk of establishment and EI > 50 very high likelihood of long-term survival. The black dotes are the geo-reference points obtained from literatures.
Fig 4.
CLIMEX climatic suitability indices for T. absoluta in Europe.
Predictionsare based on the eco-climatic index (EI), a measure of climatic suitability scaled from 1–100, for locations within CLIMEX’s platform station database. EI = (0–5) location is not suitable; EI = (5–20) moderate level of suitability; EI = (20–50) high risk of establishment and EI > 50 very high likelihood of long-term survival. The black dotes are the geo-reference points obtained from literatures.
Fig 5.
CLIMEX climatic suitability indices for T. absoluta in the world.
Predictions are based on the eco-climatic index (EI), a measure of climatic suitability scaled from 1–100, for locations within CLIMEX’s station database. EI = (0–5) location is not suitable; EI = (5–20) moderate level of suitability; EI = (20–50) high risk of establishment and EI > 50 very high likelihood of long-term survival. The black dotes are the geo-reference points obtained from literatures.
Fig 6.
CLIMEX climatic suitability indices for T. absoluta at in Africa.
Predictions are based on the eco-climatic index (EI), a measure of climatic suitability scaled from 1–100, for locations within CLIMEX’s station database. EI = (0–5) location is not suitable; EI = (5–20) moderate level of suitability; EI = (20–50) high risk of establishment and EI > 50 very high likelihood of long-term survival. The black dotes are the geo-reference location points obtained from surveys.
Fig 7.
CLIMEX climatic suitability indices for T. absoluta in East Africa.
Predictions are based on the eco-climatic index (EI), a measure of climatic suitability scaled from 1–100, for locations within CLIMEX’s station database. EI = (0–5) location is not suitable; EI = (5–20) moderate level of suitability; EI = (20–50) high risk of establishment and EI > 50 very high likelihood of long-term survival. The black dotes are the geo-reference points obtained from surveys.
Table 2.
Number of T. absoluta generations produced per year in different locations around the world.
Comparison of the developed model outputs using CLIMEX and experimental results published in the literatures.
Fig 8.
(A) Potential range shifts in the distribution of T. absoluta in Africa using the eco-climatic indices EI under climate change scenario (a rise of 1.5°C Africa wide temperature and 10% increase of rainfall from March 2—September 30 and 10% decrease in the rest of the year). The map was produced from the difference between the values of EI of the predicted future T. absoluta distribution (obtained when applying climate change criteria) and the distribution of the pest originated from current climate (year 2000) in Africa. EI = 0 demonstrates no range shift; EI < 0 signifies a reduction of climatic suitability EI > 0 represents an increase in the likelihood of survival and permanent establishment of the species. (B) Potential range of increase in number of generations per year of T. absoluta under the selected climate change scenario.