Fig 1.
Projected suitability for a) Arabica and b) Robusta coffee cultivation in 2050 under one of the possible scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5) compared with the present area suitability and showing loss, gain and no change in suitability for each grid cell.
Table 1.
Area suitability for coffee cultivation under the four concentration pathways of projected climate change in 2050 showing total suitability across all habitat types, suitability within areas not currently covered by forest, those not covered by other crops and in particular by cocoa and separating between the surface that will be suitable for the two main species of coffee.
Bold numbers indicate surfaces that are not enough to meet future demand, with total future demand for coffee being 10,507,974 and that for Arabica being 7,355,581. All areas are in hectares.
Fig 2.
Global distribution of optimal areas for a)-c) Arabica and d) Robusta coffee plantation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO and current forested surfaces, showing areas where coffee suitability might conflict with forest presence.
Fig 3.
a) Global distribution of optimal areas for coffee cultivation in 2050 predicted by the model HADGEM2-AO separating between those suitable for Arabica and Robusta cultivation after accounting for areas currently covered by forest and other crops and b) future distribution of their main pest the coffee berry borer under the RCP4.5 scenario.
Table 2.
Percent surface attacked by the coffee berry borer for each of the main coffee varieties and surface left after attack under an 8% or 24% attack rate by the berry borer and potential forest surface that might need to be changed to coffee cultivation in order to meet future demand.
For areas where forests might have to be changed to coffee we show values of average numbers of threatened species of vertebrates and conservation templates found within each grid cells, values show average and standard deviation for 100 simulations of coffee expansion.
Fig 4.
Subset of areas that will be suitable for Arabica cultivation in the future, that are currently under forest cover and within the vicinity of areas covered by coffee plantations at present showing a) the number of conservation priority templates that coincide with them, b) the number of threatened vertebrate species they host, and c) the amount of carbon stored per ha in the forests.