Fig 1.
Modelling scheme for assessing pest risks for Parthenium hysterophorus in the EPPO region using the EPPO Decision-support scheme for quarantine pests.
Green boxes are inputs, blue boxes are models, grey is an intermediate product, and orange boxes are outputs.
Fig 2.
Known global distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus.
Red circles represent distribution points where P. hysterophorus is known to be established, blue triangles indicate outliers in apparently excessively cold locations, yellow triangles excessively dry locations, green triangles excessively wet locations. Pink areas represent national or sub-national administrative units where the species has been recorded established, blue areas indicate countries where the species has been reported as transient populations.
Table 1.
CLIMEX model parameters for Parthenium hysterophorus.
Parameter mnemonics follow Sutherst et al. [47].
Fig 3.
Climate suitability for Parthenium hysterophorus establishment modelled using CLIMEX with the CliMond CM10_1975H_WO_V1.1 climate dataset [9], including the effect of irrigation [41].
(A) Global and (B) Europe and North Africa.
Fig 4.
Combined establishment and transient invasion risks posed by Parthenium hysterophorus modelled using CLIMEX with the CliMond CM10_1975H_WO_V1.1 climate dataset [9], including the effect of irrigation [41].
(A) Global and (B) Europe and North Africa.
Fig 5.
Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the CORINE database (http://www.eea.europa.eu/).
Table 2.
Areal summary of composite invasion risk to Europe from Parthenium hysterophorus by habitat class according to the CORINE environmental database, considering climate with irrigation scenarios applied according to the GMIAV5 database [41].
Habitat classes are listed in descending order of area at risk under the current climate scenario. Land use is assumed to remain static under the future climate scenario.
Fig 6.
The relative frequency of land use systems in the FAO Land Use database overlain by location records for Parthenium hysterophorus from Fig 2.
Table 3.
Areal summary of composite invasion risk to Europe from Parthenium hysterophorus by land use system class according to the FAO Land Use Systems of the World database, considering climate with irrigation scenarios applied according to the GMIAV5 database [41].
Habitat classes are listed in descending order of area at risk under the historical (1975H) climate scenario.
Fig 7.
Endangered area considering climate (EI ≥ 1) and suitable habitat types in the FAO Land Use Systems database, A) Globally, and B) for Europe and North Africa.
Table 4.
A real summary of composite global invasion risk from Parthenium hysterophorus by land use system class according to the FAO Land Use Systems of the World database, considering climate with irrigation scenarios applied according to the GMIAV5 database [41].
Habitat classes are listed in descending order of area at risk under the current climate scenario.
Fig 8.
Change in climatic establishment risk for Parthenium hysterophorus comparing the CM10_1975H_V1.1 historical climatology and the CliMond.
CM10_2070_CS_A2_V1.1 climate scenario. (A) Global and (B) Europe and North Africa.
Table 5.
Summary of modelled pest risk change classes under the 2080 climate scenario.
Table 6.
Possible responses to potentially emerging pest risks under a rapidly changing climate.