Fig 1.
Depiction of the study area composed of the state of Alaska. Ecoregion boundaries are shown for reference.
Table 1.
Species list and model results.
List of modeled small mammal species scientific and common names, their associated Taxonomic Serial Number (TSN), the number of presence and absence locations used to train models, the resultant area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC ROC; 0–1), the % of correctly identified presences (specificity), the % of correctly identified absences (sensitivity) and overall % error across all presences and absences.
Table 2.
Predictor variables used in models, type of data (categorical or continuous), and whether variables were changing or constant across time (static or dynamic). Online sources for layer downloads are also included. Continuous layers have a 60-m resolution.
Fig 2.
Projected 2100 community arrangements for 17 species of small mammals in Alaska based on a varclus correlation analysis in R. Brackets aggregate species into 2100 community groups, while colors indicate species membership in 2010 community groups.
Table 3.
Total predicted areas of presence for each of 17 species of Alaskan small mammals in 2010 and 2100. Net change is the 2010 area subtracted from that of 2100. % change is the number of pixels changed in the presence class divided by the area of the presence class for 2100. Changes in latitude, distance to coast, and elevation were calculated by subtracting the median value in 2100 from that of 2010. Negative values for latitude, coast distance, and elevation indicate southerly, coastward, and downslope shifts, respectively.
Fig 3.
Predicted distribution change for each of the 17 modeled species of small mammal in Alaska: a) northern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rutilus), b) northern collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus), c) brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus), d) long-tailed vole (Microtus longicaudus), e) singing vole (M. miurus), f) root vole (M. oeconomus), g) meadow vole (M. pennsylvanicus), h) yellow-cheeked vole (M. pennsylvanicus), i) cinereus shrew (Sorex cinereus), j) pygmy shrew (S. hoyi), k) montane shrew (S. monticolus), l) American water shrew (S. palustris), m) tundra shrew (S. tundrensis), n) barren-ground shrew (S. ugyunak), o) Alaska tiny shrew (S. yukonicus), p) northern bog-lemming (Synaptomys borealis), q) meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius). Red = areas of distribution loss, green = areas of distribution gain, and yellow = areas of persistence.
Fig 4.
Predictive species richness maps based on composites of binary (presence/absence) maps for 17 species of small mammals for the years a) 2010 (modified from [39]; S1 File) and b) 2100. Maps also depict net change in c) species richness (ΔBio) and d) relative indices of occurrence (ΔRIO). Warm colors indicate net gains in RIO (relative index of occurrence) and species richness, whereas cool colors indicate net loss of RIO and species richness.
Fig 5.
Histograms depicting the frequency of pixels for the number of species in a) 2010, b) 2100, as well as the net change in c) species richness, and d) relative indices of occurrence.