Fig 1.
Blue and green rectangles represent, respectively, the forecast outputs of the Epidemiology Model and the Treatment Costs Model. Data used to perform the forecasts are shown in red square (refer to Table 1 for further details on data source).
Table 1.
Model inputs’ values and their associated distributions/ranges.
Fig 2.
Number of New Patients per MELD score.
(A) Metric evolution over 20-years. (B) Metric forecasts at Years 1, 10 and 20.
Fig 3.
Percent of theoretic patients that would die per liver transplantation phase.
The figure shows the predicted mortality percentages. A lower proportion of patients with a high MELD scores (>30), compared to those with a MELD score < 30, are predicted to die due to the significantly shorter wait-time for an organ for sicker patients compared to those in better health.
Fig 4.
Discounted costs (per theoretical patient and per liver transplantation phase) and total discounted costs of liver transplantation (per theoretical patient) at Years 1, 10 and 20.
The total weighted treatment costs of a liver transplantation will increase from $1,427,805 per patient in Year 1 to $2,093,789 per patient in Year 20.
Fig 5.
Potential U.S. liver transplant demand and potential U.S. liver transplant medical expenses at Years 1, 10 and 20.
The demand for liver organs will increase by 10% in 10 years and by 23% in 20 years.
Table 2.
Results of the Uncertainty Analysis.
Table 3.
Results of the Sensitivity Analysis.
Table 4.
Projection of Costs to Manufacture a Liver from iPSCs.