Fig 1.
The study area and three sample transhumance routes.
The base map is prepared using the public domain data of 1:50 Million world countries from Natural Earth.
Fig 2.
Cumulative distributions of the days of stay.
The dashed vertical line indicates the stay of 20 days.
Fig 3.
Transhumance routes and seasonality.
The map shows all the pastoralists in year 2007–2008. Circles represent campsite locations and consecutive sites are linked using straight lines. Large circles represent sojourn campsites (≥ 20 days). Here the seasons are the time when the pastoralists start the camp. The shaded area shaded is part of the Far North Region.
Fig 4.
Three groups of transhumance routes.
Fig 5.
Transhumance modes for pastoralists in groups 1 and 2 (A) and group 3 (B).
Table 1.
Transhumance modes.
Fig 6.
The kernel density of the camps during the hot dry season.
A kernel of 5 km is used. The dots are the locations over the four years of the transhumance data.
Table 2.
Parameters for the spatial and temporal mobility (STM) model.
Fig 7.
Results of fitting the temporal models.
Each curve represents the probability of a particular day being in a specific transhumance mode. The horizontal axis indicates the days in a year starting on August 16.
Fig 8.
Each contour encloses an area where P(xt = x) ≥ 95%. Each map shows the result after overlaying the contours of every 5 days throughout the year. Groups 1, 2, and 3 are represented in the figures from left to the right. The part of contours outside the study area is not shown in the maps.
Fig 9.
Each contour encloses an area where F(xt = x) ≥ 95%. Each map shows the result after overlaying the contours of every 5 days throughout the year. Groups 1, 2, and 3 are represented in the figures from left to the right. Each map shows the results from three bandwidths: 1 km (light grey solid lines), 5 km (colored solid lines), and 20 km (dashed light grey lines).
Fig 10.
Each contour encloses an area where G(xt = x) ≥ 95%. Each map shows the result after overlaying the contours of every 5 days throughout the year. Groups 1, 2, and 3 are represented in the figures from left to the right. The part of contours outside the study area is not shown in the maps.
Table 3.
The mean difference in the closeness measure between the simulations and the data for the year.
The numbers in bold indicate the best measure among the three models for each year.
Fig 11.
Daily mean closeness between pastoralists obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.
Table 4.
The mean difference in the moving distance measure between the simulations and the data for the year.
The numbers in bold indicate the best measure among the three models for each year.
Fig 12.
Daily mean moving distance obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.
Fig 13.
The convex hulls of the data (shaded) and of simulation results for year 2007–2008.
The dots represent the locations of the pastoralists in the survey data. Pastoralist groups 1 through 3 are represented in the left, center, and right maps, respectively. For each group, only one example of the 100 simulations is shown.
Table 5.
The mean difference in overlapped convex hull ratio between the simulations and the data for the year.
The numbers in bold indicate the best measure among the three models for each year. Italic numbers refer to the highest ratios in all models except KRN1. The rows marked as DATA show the overlapped convex hull ratio between the data of the year and that of year 2007–2008 for each group.