Fig 1.
The Kenyan coast comprising of three counties (Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale).
Showing population density per 100 m2 (yellow 0 through dark blue 203 people per 100 m2) developed from high spatial resolution 1999 census data [13]; urban centres (Grey) defined by the national census bureau [14] where digitized boundaries undertaken using Google Earth, and used to exclude parasite prevalence data; the location of meteorological stations (Black triangles); major river systems (Blue).
Fig 2.
Location of age-corrected parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) with the highest recorded estimate of prevalence on top (Left hand panel) and lowest PfPR2-10 estimate on top (Right hand panel) to distinguish prevalence at similar locations with time.
Data displayed against 279 fifth level census administrative units used to make monthly median malaria predictions (see Methods).
Fig 3.
Median small area annual estimates of PfPR2-10 for the 279 sub-locations fitted using a Generalized Additive Regression model between January 1974 and December 2014 (black line).
The 25% and 75% inter-quartile range and the 2.5% and 97.5% credible intervals are shown as solid and dashed red lines respectively.
Fig 4.
Extracted monthly GAM fitted median PfPR2-10 (red line) shown in relation to annual and long rains (March-June) percentage anomalies in precipitation (dark and light grey bars respectively); cumulative "effective" mid-year ITN distribution data (dark green likely efficacious, light green <50% efficacious, see methods); estimated day 7 anti-malarial drug failures to clear parasitaemia based on information provided in text (blue triangles); and malaria policy milestones for standard treatment guidelines and mass ITN distribution dates (FMD), including reported ITN use among all age groups (S3 Data).