Fig 1.
Growing season climate of the study site from 1980 to 2099.
A. Average growing season (between planting and harvest) daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures, and B. total growing season precipitation. The average linear change in maximum and minimum temperatures across the 2013 to 2100 period, were 3.8°C/100y and 3.3°C/100y respectively. There is no significant trend in the growing season precipitation for this location.
Fig 2.
Comparisons of yield between continuous and re-initialized runs for both irrigated and rainfed treatments.
A. Simulated rainfed and irrigated maize yields under projected climate with a fixed cultivar under no-till management. Continuous simulations (solid lines) vs. re-initialized on January 1 of each year (dashed lines) are shown for the NHP site. B. Cumulative bias in yield (continuous minus re-initialized).
Table 1.
Summaries of yield bias (continuous minus re-initialized) for irrigated and rainfed (Rain) treatments across four 30-year periods.
Fig 3.
Predicted amount of Plant Extractable Soil Water (PESW) on the planting date (DOY 120) for rainfed maize.
Red line shows the PESW for the continuous simulation; black line shows PESW re-initialized on January 1; straight grey line shows initial PESW for the re-initialized model. The soil profile was 150 cm thick.
Fig 4.
Plot of yields from no-till and conventional tillage for both irrigated and rainfed maize from 1980 to 2099 with continuous simulations.
Fig 5.
Projected soil carbon levels from 1980 through 2099 for treatments with rainfed and irrigated maize, and conventional and no-till agriculture.
Fig 6.
Plot of simulated maize yields with a potential adaptation strategy (dashed lines) of switching to a new cultivar and planting 10 days earlier in the year 2035 (vertical dashed line) to account for projected climate changes.
These results are for both irrigated and rainfed no-till management from 1980 to 2099. Current management and cultivar are shown with solid lines.