Table 1.
Characteristics of regimens included in the original (training), validation, and full dataset.
Table 2.
Observed and predicted relapse rates in arms of three phase 3 trials of fluoroquinolone-containing regimens.
Fig 1.
Observed and predicted proportions of subjects with tuberculosis recurrence in the 8 arms of the 3 trials comprising the validation dataset, based on all recurrences (left panel) and only those with full culture confirmation (right panel).
Recurrences were predicted using the original mathematical model as reported in reference [5]. Axes indicate logit-transformed recurrence risk; inset scales indicate corresponding percentages. Red symbols indicate 4 month regimens; green symbols indicate 6 month regimens. Error bars indicate 80% confidence intervals (10%-90%). Vertical and horizontal dotted lines indicate recurrence rates of 10% (-2.2 after logit transformation).
Fig 2.
Predicted proportion of patients with recurrence based on the proportion positive after 2 months of treatment, for regimens of 4 and 6 months duration.
Axes indicate logit-transformed proportions; inset scales indicate corresponding percentages. Solid and dotted lines indicate updated and original model predictions, respectively. Shading indicates 80% confidence intervals for the updated estimates.
Table 3.
Parameter estimates of original and revised meta-regression models.
Table 4.
Predicted relapse rates for hypothetical regimens of 4, 6, and 8 months duration.
Table 5.
Observed and predicted relapse rates in the treatment shortening study of Johnson et al [9].