Fig 1.
Decision tree model structure.
Description of the decision tree options compared. The nodes are points where more than one event is possible. Decision nodes (represented by squares) show the different options that might be chosen by decision-makers. Chance nodes (circles) show uncertain events, each of which is associated with a probability that it will occur. The branches are mutually exclusive events following each node. Terminal nodes (triangles) are the decision tree endpoints, beyond which no further pathways are available. CBDS = common bile duct stones. EUS = Endoscopic ultrasound. MRCP = magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. ERCP = endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. c = complications.
Table 1.
Base case results.
Fig 2.
Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves at different values of the maximum willingness to pay for a QALY.
Results from the cost-effectiveness acceptability analysis. MRCP had a 61.0% probability of being cost-effective at a maximum willingness to pay for a QALY of $29,000 and a 61.1% probability at a value of $43,000. For EUS the values were 25.2% and 25.3%, respectively. For direct ERCP they were 13.9% and 13.6%, respectively. EUS = Endoscopic ultrasound. MRCP = magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. ERCP = endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography QALY = quality adjusted life year.