Figure 1.
Distribution maps for the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly using baseline climate data (Row 1) and climate projections from three global circulation models (GCMs) for the period 2070–2099 (Rows 2–4) using two CO2 emissions scenarios: A2 for Models 1 to 3 (Columns 1–3) and B1 (Column 4, only for Model 3).
Figure 2.
Distribution maps for King Billy Pine using baseline climate data (Row 1) and climate projections from three global circulation models (GCMs) for the period 2070–2099 (Rows 2–4) using two CO2 emissions scenarios: A2 for Models 1 to 3 (Columns 1–3) and B1 (Column 4, only for Model 3).
Table 1.
Variables identified as important in determining species distribution.
Table 2.
Statistical model selection indices.
Figure 3.
Alternative summaries for multiple species distribution models.
Maps are model summaries for the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly (left) and King Billy Pine (right) using models based on six GCM inputs; means and standard deviations (Row 1); spatial extents where at least one model indicates suitable habitat (Row 2); agreement between models, where at least one model predicted suitability above 0.5 (Row 3); model agreement overlayed on the baseline distribution for the species (Row 4).
Table 3.
The I similarity statistic for future projections of suitable climatic habitat for 2070–2099 using Model 2 in relation to the baseline predicted habitat for the species.
Figure 4.
Decision tree to guide the application of SDMs under future climate to conservation management.