Figure 1.
Distribution of Culicoides imicola and study area: training, verification and validation zones for modelling (with respectively 187, 131, 561 occurrences at 10′ granularity) with Köppen-Geiger climate simplified classification [33].
Cross-hatched areas are zones of inhospitable habitat (Adriatic Sea, Sahara Desert and Red Sea) separating the 3 model-fitting zones.
Figure 2.
Global climate suitability for Culicoides imicola under historical conditions as represented by the CLIMEX Ecoclimatic Index (EI) for the completed model.
Cross-hatching indicates suitable areas when irrigation is integrated in the model (Appendix S2 in File S1). Highly suitable areas in dark.
Figure 3.
Forecast variation of ecoclimatic suitability between historical climate (current EI) and 2070 projected climate (future EI) from A2 climate scenarios using CSIRO-MK3.0 climate models.
a) qualitative variation highlighted the expansion (current EI = 0, future EI>0) and the contraction (current EI>0, future EI = 0) of suitable areas for 2070 projection. b) quantitative variation illustrated climatic suitability increases or decreases. Small and large EI variations represented respectively differences in the range 3–30 and 31–100.