Table 1.
Species modeled and number of eBird sample points for each.
Table 2.
Relative socioeconomic characteristics of the three IPCC SRES scenarios used in this assessment.
Table 3.
Covariates used as predictor variables within Maxent.
Table 4.
Twelve model simulations were conducted for each species, three for 2001 and nine for 2075.
Table 5.
Impacts on assessment variables by range class.
Figure 1.
AUC scores for each species, for run 1 (all variables modeled), run 2 (Climate, no Land Cover), and run 3 (Land Cover no Climate).
AUC scores are also parsed by range class.
Figure 2.
Proportional contributions of each covariate to the regularized training gain, aggregated across all 50 species.
Figure 3.
Area (percent of conterminous U.S. land mass) classified as suitable to support a given species, for model run 1 (all variables modeled), run 2 (Climate, no Land Cover), and run 3 (Land Cover no Climate).
Suitability was determined by applying the maximum sensitivity plus specificity threshold to Maxent logistic output. Results are also parsed by range class.
Figure 4.
Changes (2001 to 2075) in area classified as suitable to support a given species.
Change is presented as area change, relative to the contemporary (2001) modeled range. Bar height represents mean change across the 3 IPCC scenarios, while error bars represent scenario variability. Suitability was determined by applying the maximum sensitivity plus specificity threshold to Maxent logistic output. Results are also parsed by range class.
Figure 5.
Maxent 2001 logistic output for the Hooded Warbler, and projected changes under each 2075 scenario and model run.
Climate change results in broad northward shifts in species range across all scenarios. LULC change alters the local pattern of habitat suitability, with losses under the A1B and A2 scenarios, and general increases in the B1 scenario.
Figure 6.
LULC and model results for a portion of the Hooded Warbler’s range.
Panels on the left (6 a–d) depict 2001 LULC, and the three model runs for 2001. Panels in the middle (6 e–h) depict 2075 LULC for the A2 scenario, and the three model runs for 2075 for that scenario. The two panels on the right depict differences in model results (compared to 6 g, when all variables were modeled) if 1) climate was held static for 2075 (6i), and 2) LULC was held static for 2075 (6j).