Figure 1.
Original extent of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot in Brazil.
Figure 2.
Species richness patterns for tiger moths in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Tiger moth species richness patterns in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil (present and future, 2080, climate models CCCMA-CGCM3, CSIRO-MK2, and HCCPR-HadCM3) forecasted by ecological niche models generated by different distance modeling methods (Euclidian and Gower distances, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, ENFA) and machine learning methods (Maximum Entropy, MaxEnt; Genetic algorithm for Rule set Production, GARP; Artificial Neural Networks, ANN).
Figure 3.
Consensus maps for tiger moth species richness in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Maps of modeled tiger moth species richness based on consensus projections of 507 species predicted to occur in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil, for current time (1950–2000) and 2080 (2051–2080) according to two different types of modeling methods and climate models. Models from distance and machine-learning methods were combined through an ensemble of forecasts to generate these consensus maps.
Figure 4.
Species turnover pattern for tiger moths in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Maps of modeled tiger moth species turnover based on consensus projections of 507 species predicted to occur in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil, for current time (1950–2000) and 2080 (2051–2080) according to two different types of modeling methods and climate models. Models from distance and machine-learning methods were combined through an ensemble of forecasts to generate these consensus maps.
Figure 5.
Expected changes for the four climatic variables used to model species' ecological niches in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Maps show present conditions and values for future climate models CCCMA-CGCM3, CSIRO-MK2, and HCCPR-HadCM3, in 2080).
Figure 6.
Relationship between present and future tiger moth species richness in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Modeled present and future species richness of protected areas (filled circles) in the Atlantic Forest biome (A1 and B1). Open blue circles indicate expected species richness according to a null model of random location of protected areas in the biome. Dashed lines are the extrapolated regressions of the expected species richness according to the null model (A1: y∼−1.983+0.623*x; B1: y ∼32.178+0.640*x). Filled red circles indicate protected areas predicted to have severe species richness losses, defined as those in which future species richness will be lower than the predicted by a null model of random location of protected areas (below dashed regression line). Orange filled circles indicate protected areas predicted to have mild species richness losses, defined as those in which future species richness will be higher than the predicted by a null model of random location of protected areas. Green filled circles indicate protected areas predicted to gain species richness. Solid lines indicates the regression of modeled species richness in the future against modeled species richness in the present (A1: y∼43.817+0.464*x, R2 = 0.362, F1,185 = 105.2, P<0.001; B1: y∼22.736+0.688*x, R2 = 0.850, F1,185 = 1051.0, P<0.001). Maps of protected areas predicted to gain (green) or lose (orange, red) species in future changing climate (A2 and B2).