Figure 1.
Mean annual temperature in southern Germany between 1881 and 2011.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals.
Table 1.
Associations of morphological traits with the age, sex and month of collection of specimens in 11 bird species.
Figure 2.
Fluctuations in tarsus length of eleven bird species in southern Germany between 1889 and 2010.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 2 for exact p-values.
Figure 3.
Fluctuations in wing length of eleven bird species in association with the five-year mean annual temperature.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 3 for exact p-values.
Figure 4.
Fluctuations in tarsus length of eleven bird species in association with the five-year mean annual temperature.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 3 for exact p-values.
Table 2.
Association of three morphological variables for 11 bird species with the smooth term “year” in a GAM.
Table 3.
Association of three morphological variables for 11 bird species with the smooth term “temperature” in a GAM.
Table 4.
Comparisons of models with alternate smooth terms (temperature – year) for each species and morphological trait.
Figure 5.
Fluctuations in wing length of eleven bird species in southern Germany between 1889 and 2010.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 2 for exact p-values.
Figure 6.
Fluctuations in wing pointedness (Kipp) of eleven bird species in southern Germany between 1889 and 2010.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 2 for exact p-values.
Figure 7.
Fluctuations in wing pointedness (Kipp) of eleven bird species in association with the five-year mean annual temperature.
Solid line – regression spline fit from the GAM; dashed lines – 95% confidence intervals. See methods for details. A p-value of >0.05 is indicated with (ns) after the species name, see table 3 for exact p-values.