Figure 1.
Maps showing the distribution of oceanic montane vegetation in Europe and Ireland.
(A) Distribution range (red line) of temperate oceanic montane vegetation in Europe. (B) Main areas (red lines) where conditions are currently optimal for the occurrence of oceanic montane vegetation in Ireland, i.e. areas of altitude over 500 m, that are within the area defined as hyperoceanic by [94]; shaded areas are sites designated as the Natura 2000 network of protected areas (including marine sites) on the island of Ireland.
Table 1.
Current mean, minimum, maximum and range values for climatic and topographic variables and projected climate variables for 2055.
Figure 2.
Box plots of the predictive performance of species distribution models for 30 montane species, comparing models with only climate variables to those containing both climate and ecologically relevant topographic variables.
The methods of evaluation used were AUC, Kappa and TSS. The difference in performance between models created using climate variables only and climate and topographic variables was significant in all cases (p<0.001).
Figure 3.
Boxplots of the change in range (%) of species under conditions of unlimited and limited dispersal, grouped by a number of categories.
(A)–(B) are grouped by plant type (bryophyte (n = 14) or vascular plant (n = 16)); (C)–(D) are grouped by community (1: montane heath (n = 10), 2: montane cliff (n = 9), 3: hepatic mat (n = 5), 4: oceanic montane bryophyte (n = 6)); (E)–(F) are grouped by biome [53], [54] (1: Arctic-montane (n = 10), 2: Boreo-arctic-montane (n = 5), 3: Boreal montane (n = 12), 4: Temperate and Southern Temperate (n = 3)); (G)–(H) are grouped by eastern limit category [53], [54] (1: hyperoceanic and oceanic (n = 8), 2: suboceanic (n = 3), 3: European, Eurosiberian and Eurasian (n = 5), 4: circumpolar (n = 14)). Range changes calculated using an ensemble of models produced by BIOMOD2.
Figure 4.
Species distribution maps, showing the projected change in spatial distribution of 6 montane species under predicted climate change scenarios for 2055, representative of the two primary patterns of range change displayed by the modelled species.
Species (A) Anastrepta orcadensis, (B) Herbertus aduncus subsp. hutchinsiae ((i) photograph of H. aduncus subsp. hutchinsiae from Co. Donegal, Ireland; (ii) distribution map) and (C) Scapania ornithopodioides are oceanic bryophytes, and show a potential northward shift in range. Species (D) Salix herbacea ((i) photograph of S. herbacea from Co. Donegal, Ireland; (ii) distribution map), (E) Sedum rosea and (F) Saussurea alpina ((i) photograph of S. alpina from Co. Kerry, Ireland; (ii) distribution map) are of arctic montane distribution, and will potentially contract in range to grid cells of higher altitude. Green grid cells = Gain; Blue grid cells = Stable; Red grid cells = Loss.
Figure 5.
Projected percentage change in overlap with protected areas from current to future distribution, for all species modelled.
Figure 6.
Proportion of overlap between current and future distribution of species groups and protected areas.
(A) Grouped by plant community; a different letter signifies a significant difference between categories (Wilcoxon ranked sum; p<0.05; capitals for present, lower case for future scenarios), categories that show a significant change in overlap between current and future (Wilcoxon signed rank; p<0.01) are denoted by **. (B) Grouped by biome; letters signify significant differences between categories (Wilcoxon ranked sum; p<0.05), categories that show a significant change in overlap between current and future (Wilcoxon signed rank; p<0.01) are denoted by **.