Figure 1.
Study Area and Species Localities.
Study area and herbarium record locations for the 20 modeled CSS shrub species. Habitat suitability models were created from all herbarium localities, analyses of habitat and land use change were restricted to within California.
Table 1.
List of California sage scrub species.
Figure 2.
Projected Anthropogenic Land Use Change Maps.
Projected 21st century change in anthropogenic land use (2000–2050, 2050–2080, 2000–2080) under the IPCC-SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic uses include developed areas, cultivated crops, hay/pasture, mining, and mechanically disturbed (logged) land. Land use-land cover maps were resampled to 1 km resolution from the USGS LandCarbon 250 m resolution land use-land cover maps for the continental United States [9].
Table 2.
Primary projected changes in land use-land cover for the Central Coast and South Coast California Ecoregions.
Table 3.
Summary of loss of CSS species suitable habitat to projected anthropogenic land uses.
Figure 3.
Relative Impacts of Projected Land Use and Climate Change on CSS Species Habitat.
Boxplots showing the percent change in CSS species habitat due to projected land use and climate change under the A1B IPCC-SRES scenario. Climate scenarios are abbreviated as WW (warmer wetter CCCMA CGC 3.1) and WD (warmer drier NCAR CCSM 3.0). No dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenarios are shown separately.
Table 4.
Summary of percent change in suitable CSS species habitat under 21st century land use and climate change scenarios.
Figure 4.
Median Percent Change in CSS Species Habitat from Projected Land Use and Climate Change.
Plots show the median percent changes in species habitat due to projected land use and climate change, including percent overlap of impacts, under each climate and dispersal scenario. Climate scenarios are abbreviated as WW (warmer wetter CCCMA CGC 3.1) and WD (warmer drier NCAR CCSM 3.0).
Table 5.
Sensitivity of individual CSS species to projected land use (LU) and climate change (CC).
Figure 5.
Projected Climate Change and Land Use Impacts on CSS Richness.
Current (2000) and projected early century (2050s) and late century (2080s) CSS species richness under two climate change scenarios (top rows: warmer wetter CCCMA CGC 3.1, bottom rows: warmer drier NCAR CCSM 3.0) assuming unlimited dispersal and no dispersal. Anthropogenic land use is shown as gray overlays and includes developed, mining, mechanically disturbed (logging), cultivated croplands, and hay/pasture land uses.
Table 6.
Percent of land area with projected loss and gain in CSS species richness due to climate change summarized by land use category.