Figure 1.
Study area and predicted habitat suitability for the endangered white-eared night heron Gorsachius magnificus.
The suitability is displayed in logistic value and ranges from 0 (lowest suitability) to 1 (highest suitability). Blue circles indicate known occurrence records. The Arabic numerals indicate locations of the significant mountain ranges mentioned in this study: 1, Shennongjia Mt.; 2, Dabie Mt.; 3, Huangshan-Tianmu Mt.; 4, Yandang-Wuyi-Daiyun Mt.; 5, Mufu-Jiuling-Luoxiao Mt.; 6, Nanling Mt.; 7, Wuling-Xuefeng-Miaoling Mt.; 8, Dayaoshan Mt.; 9, Limuling-Wuzhishan Mt.; 10, Shiwan'dashan Mt.; 11, Ban Thi & Xuan Lac; 12, Ailao Mt.
Figure 2.
Comparison values of bioclimatic variables in projected suitable range between current and future climate scenarios.
The black solid horizontal line represents the median, the square symbol represents the mean, edges of box are quartiles, whiskers are the 1th and 99th percentiles and black short lines are minimum and maximum.
Figure 3.
Predicted habitat suitability for Gorsachius magnificus under the projected climate scenarios in 2050.
These predictions are obtained with an ensemble-forecast approach across the three general circulation models CCCMA, CSIRO and HADCM3 of the climate scenarios under the two storylines (A2a and B2a).
Figure 4.
Discrepancy of suitability, altitude, longitude and latitude for predicted distribution between current and future scenarios.
The minimum, mean, and maximum of suitability (a), altitude (b), longitude (c), and latitude (d) for predicted distribution of Gorsachius magnificus are exhibited. Red, green and blue represent current, A2a and B2a scenarios, respectively.
Figure 5.
Impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability along the latitude.
Panels a and b represent the projected impacts for Gorsachius magnificus under two future climate scenarios (A2a and B2a; blue, current suitable ranges projected to be stable; red, suitable ranges projected to be lost; and green, the suitable ranges projected to be newly gained), respectively. The panels c and d represent the percentage of range lost. The predicted suitability is estimated based on the average training presence threshold.
Figure 6.
Disagreement of projected habitat suitability between current and future scenarios.
The disagreement is calculated as the divergence of habitat suitability of Gorsachius magnificus between current and future climate conditions under the A2a (panel a) and B2a (panel b) climate scenarios. The negative values represent that the habitat is less suitable in future than in current, while the positive values represent the habitat is more suitable in future than in current.