Figure 1.
From the 9337 women enrolled in the control arm of the PATRICIA trial, 4512 were excluded from the present analyses including 4431 subjects with no cervical HPV infection detected during the 48 months of follow-up. 4825 women representing 16785 cervical HPV infections (blue) were included and two sub-cohorts were constituted: women with a 6-month persistent HPV infection (6MPI) (n = 3363 representing 6902 infections) (light blue) and women with a natural clearance of the HPV infection (n = 4011 representing 10983 clearances) (light purple). The numbers of women and of CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ lesions were calculated after exclusion of the lesions occurring after 48 months for any duration of HPV infection (blue) and for 6MPI (light blue).
Among the 119 subjects with 6MPI and CIN3+, 9 had AIS (11 episodes). Among the 124 subjects with an infection of any duration and CIN3+, 10 had AIS (13 episodes). No invasive cervical cancer was found.
6MPI: 6-month persistent infection; CIN: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV: human papillomavirus; TVC-E: total vaccinated cohort for efficacy.
Figure 2.
Risk of progression of a 6MPI to CIN2+ or CIN3+ associated with the same HPV type.
2a. CIN2+
2b. CIN3+
Kaplan–Meier Estimates of Cumulative Risk (%) of Developing CIN2+ Lesions (Figure 2a) or CIN3+ Lesions (Figure 2b) Associated with the Same HPV Type Were Calculated for HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-31, HPV-33, HPV-45, Other Oncogenic HPV Types and Non-Oncogenic HPV Types
Figure 3.
Cumulative chance of clearing a cervical HPV infection (prevalent and incident infections).
3a. Duration of infection
3b. HPV type (infection of any duration)
Kaplan–Meier estimates of probability of clearance (%) were calculated for transient, less than 6-month persistent HPV infection (6MPI), 6MPI and overall (Figure 3a) or according the HPV types (Figure 3b): HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-31, HPV-33, HPV-45, other oncogenic HPV types and non-oncogenic HPV types.
Figure 4.
Summary according to HPV type of prevalence in 6MPI, risk of progression to CIN3+ lesion and chance of clearance.
Dark-shaded boxes: high prevalence (>10%), high risk of progression (HR >20) or low chance of clearance (HR <0.85)
Medium-shaded boxes: medium prevalence (5–10%), medium risk of progression (HR 5–20) or medium chance of clearance (0.85-<0.95)
Light-shaded boxes: low prevalence (<5%), low risk of progression (HR <5) or high chance of clearance (HR ≥0.95)
Definitions of high, medium and low prevalence, risk of progression and chance of clearance are arbitrary and are based on the results of the present study.
6MPI: 6-month persistent infection; CIN: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV: human papillomavirus; HR: hazard ratio.