Figure 1.
Site map of the study catchment (63°31'2.47″N, 150°1'42.80″W), delineating major landuse types, and the location of the pressure transducers at the “flow gauging station”. Landcover data was obtained from the AK I&M Inventory Program (non-proprietary data), through the National Park Service data repository (http://nrdata.nps.gov/). Accessed 2013 August 6).
Figure 2.
Remotely sensed images of headwater glaciers in the Middle Fork Toklat Catchment (63°23'46.67″N, 149°51'43.99″W), analysed using satellite data from 1986–2009, sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Centre of 1986-2009.
Figure 3.
A conceptual diagram of the HBV model, based on the description by Sælthun (39).
Figure 4.
The water balance of Middle Fork Toklat headwater glaciers measured as equivalent meters of water a) in the ablation zone; comparing observed (satellite imagery analysis of glacial extent) and modelled (HBV glacial mass balance output) values, and b) analysing net glacial flux from the HBV model.
Figure 5.
Comparison of observed and modelled discharge data in the Teklanika catchment a) on a monthly time scale, b) a 10 year average.
Figure 6.
Comparison of observed and modelled discharge data in the Toklat catchment a) on a daily time scale, b) a monthly time scale.
Figure 7.
Exploratory analysis of the relationships between extreme flow events and a) precipitation, b) temperature.
Figure 8.
Comparison between observed, NCEP and Global Climate Model (GCM) meteorological data, between 1961 and 2000, demonstrating the representativeness of GCMs for a) temperature and b) precipitation.
Figure 9.
Complete modelled time series of a) temperature and b) precipitation across both GCMs and IPCC scenarios.
Figure 10.
Complete modelled time series of a) glacial mass balance and b) river discharge across both GCMs and IPCC scenarios.
Figure 11.
Flow exceedance curves under baseline and future climate conditions, demonstrating changes in the percentage of time particular flows are exceeded.