Table 1.
Variables and results from the probit regression model of parcel subdivision in San Diego County.
Figure 1.
Trends of development extent and pattern for three planning policy simulations from 2010–2030, including A) total housing footprint representing the area of land within all housing clusters, and B) mean housing density averaged across all housing clusters.
Figure 2.
Trends in number of patches and patch area for three planning policy simulations from 2010–2030.
Numbers were log-transformed for better visual representation of the scenarios.
Table 2.
Pattern of simulated development under infill, expansion, and leapfrog growth policies.
Figure 3.
The importance of explanatory variables averaged across five cross-validated replications in the MaxEnt fire risk model.
Percent contribution is determined as a function of the information gain from each environmental variable throughout the MaxEnt model iterations. Permutation importance reflects the drop in model accuracy that results from random permutations of each environmental variable, normalized to percentages.
Figure 4.
Maps of the study area showing projected wildfire risk at year 2030 for simulations of residential development under policies emphasizing infill, expansion, or leapfrog growth.
Figure 5.
Projected landscape fire risk, reflecting the probability of burning in a wildfire averaged across all residential structures on the current landscape and in three development scenarios of infill, expansion, and leapfrog for year 2030.
Figure 6.
Proportion of residential structures that are located in areas of high fire risk defined using thresholds from the fire risk model of 0.05, 0.25, and 0.5 for current structures and for structures simulated under infill, expansion, and leapfrog growth policies.